How's Oregon Doing with the 'Rona?
I've been absent on this topic for 3 months. The latest from COVID-19 in Oregon.
Where Have I Been?
Well, sort of busy at work. I wasn’t as busy last winter.
Also, OHA has cut back publication of some of the data I was using for the posts. However, there’s still enough out there to write a post that looks at what’s going on in the state now that - at least in the USA - the pandemic is starting to become the COVID-19 endemic.
Vaccinations
From XKCD:
Vaccines and Immunity
UPDATE: Pretty much anyone can get a booster now, toddlers & babies are a couple of weeks from getting their first shots, and if you’re older or immunocompromised, you can get a 4th shot.
If you want to learn more about how your immune system works, I highly suggest that you watch the Immunology series on YouTube from Khan Academy for a detailed primer.
So, why get vaccinated? Well, vaccination is a great way to prevent illness and worse because it prepares your immune system to fight off a given organic pathogen after it invades but does so without the risk of illness. Note that vaccines can’t prevent infection (the pathogen getting into your body and invading some cells) but can make sure your immune system gets a head start to fight off illness (getting sick) and prevent the potentially-bad outcomes that stem from it. Vaccines are fire extinguishers, not body armor (hat tip: This Week in Virology [TWIV]). Also note that many viruses have the potential to cause immune responses that are so strong that they cause lasting damage or death on their own. Read about cytokine storms here for one such response.
In short: Get vaccinated so you decrease your risk of lousy outcomes.
Oregon’s Data
When I last wrote about Oregon & COVID-19, my data was current as of 4/14. At that point in time, 74.5% of the state’s residents of all ages had received at least one shot with 67.8% fully vaccinated. 37.4% had been boosted.
Since then, we’ve seen an increase of about 1.3% in those having gotten a first dose. We’re now at 75.8% of the state’s residents of all ages having received at least one shot with 68.7% fully vaccinated. 40.1% have been boosted.
Any increase is almost entirely due to increases in the high-vax counties. The county breakdown shows that Hood River County has the highest rate at 88.5%, which is up 7% since April. Multnomah is up from 80.9% to 83.4%; Washington County up from 79.7% to 83.0%. Benton is the latest county to hit 80%. The bottom counties have hardly budged.
Kids < 5
This group is finally able to get vaccinated! However, there hasn’t exactly been a rush to vaccinate, averaging about 460 new shots per day. 6.4% have gotten their first shots so far.
How About That Fancy Dashboard from OHA? And OHSU? What’re They Saying Now?
As of 7/20, these are the trends for cases, hospitalizations, and ER visits for “COVID-like illness” (CLI), as well as some forecasts.
First, Oregon has been floating between 1,500-2,000 cases/day for over a month:
This is kinda cool:
And while Delta has a long reign as king, Omicron has been doing the whole presto change-o thing for months now, with a cornucopia of colors on the VARIANTS!!11!11! dashboard. BA.4 and BA.5 are now about 70% of total sequenced cases.
Hospitalizations appear to be peaking and have begun to fall from about 450 statewide as of last week, sitting yesterday at 424. Note that the number in the ICU has hardly budged, and the percentage of ER visits for COVID-19 has started to fall from over 6% to under 5%.
The number of hospitalized kids under 18 has hovered in the 10-20 range for the last month and appears to also be peaking.
…and here’s statewide ICU usage and hospital capacity:
However, lots of people are hospitalized with COVID-19 (ie: happen to be in the hospital and test positive) and not for it (ie: you tested positive, got really sick, and went to the hospital as a result).
Note that OHA mentioned hospitals starting to get a little cramped yesterday due to staffing shortages, primarily (temporary and permanent), but they also echoed the data and OHSU analysis that predicts census to have peaked or be peaking soon.
As is expected, some small increase in deaths is predicted due to the recent rise in hospitalizations, though nothing remotely close to the last two waves, likely due to high rates of vaccination and previous infection.
What It All Means
We’re rapidly approaching endemicity. Happy happy, joy joy.
Remember to get vaccinated with the recently-planned (and approved by the FDA - CDC guidance still forthcoming) booster this fall and keep the ‘rona at bay this holiday season.